Greece, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

440
FXUS61 KBUF 131641
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1241 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area this afternoon and evening
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms with very uneven
coverage. Dry weather will then return Thursday and last through
Saturday. A minor drop in temperatures and humidity Thursday will
quickly give way to another period of heat, peaking on Saturday. A
weak cold front will then move south across the area Sunday with a
chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid level trough will continue to move east across Quebec through
tonight, with a trailing weakly forced cold front crossing the
eastern Great Lakes. Following the somewhat widespread showers and
thunderstorms this morning, subsequent shower and thunderstorm
development will be more widely scattered and uneven this afternoon
and evening.

Expect the most organized rain to develop away from the stabilizing
influence of the lakes, from the Southern Tier through the Finger
Lakes and Central NY, peaking in coverage late this afternoon.
Another line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will also likely
develop along the northern edge of the Lake Erie lake breeze from
near Buffalo to Rochester this afternoon. This line will eventually
move southeast across the rest of Western NY during the late
afternoon and evening as it becomes captured by the advancing cold
front.

Poor shear, weak lapse rates, and limited instability will keep the
chance of any stronger convection very low. A few storms will
produce localized heavy downpours.

Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually end from
northwest to southeast with some partial clearing overnight. Patchy
fog will develop overnight, especially across the valleys of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, and also east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday, mainly dry weather will return as high pressure builds
into Ontario and Quebec, with a ridge axis extending down into the
Upper Great Lakes. Northerly upslope flow and limited diurnal
instability may produce an isolated shower or two across higher
terrain, but the lake plains should stay completely dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Seasonably strong surface high pressure will drift from Quebec
Thursday to New England by Friday and Saturday with a ridge
extending back across the eastern Great Lakes. This will provide
another stretch of dry weather. Temperatures will trend quickly
upward with building heights and warm advection aloft. Highs by
Saturday will likely reach 90 again for lower elevations away from
the immediate lakeshores. The airmass stays relatively dry, so
overnight lows will still be comfortable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level trough will amplify across Quebec and the Canadian
Maritimes Sunday through the middle of next week, while the
strong/hot CONUS ridge is forced south and west. Flow adjustments
around the digging trough over Quebec will force a cold front south
across New England and the eastern Great Lakes Sunday with a chance
of a few showers and thunderstorms. Some runs of individual models
and ensemble members over the past few days have suggested a wave of
low pressure may then move along the frontal zone Monday, which may
allow rain chances to linger early next week. Still plenty of
uncertainty with the Monday through Tuesday forecast depending on
the eventual location of the frontal zone and wave.

What is more certain is a trend towards a cooler pattern starting
early next week. Highs will drop back into the 70s areawide by
Tuesday or Wednesday. This cooler pattern across the Northeast US
appears to have some staying power, with the latest 8-14 day outlook
favoring below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon
and evening, producing some additional widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The best coverage of rain and convection is expected
across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Central NY, peaking
later this afternoon. Another band of showers and thunderstorms will
likely develop along the northern edge of the Lake Erie lake breeze
from near KBUF to KROC this afternoon. This will then become
captured by the cold front and spread southeast across the remainder
of Western NY late afternoon and early evening. VFR will prevail
most of the time this afternoon and evening, but any heavier shower
will produce brief/local CIG/VSBY restrictions.

Overnight, the scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually
end from northwest to southeast. Expect partial clearing overnight,
and this will likely allow for some patchy fog and local IFR to
develop. Fog will be most prevalent across the valleys of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, and also east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday, the fog will burn off by mid morning. This will leave VFR
to prevail the rest of the day. Diurnal cumulus will develop late
morning through the afternoon, especially across higher terrain
inland from the lakes. A spotty shower or two is possible across the
higher terrain, with the lake plains staying completely dry.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog and local IFR
possible across the Southern Tier each late night and early morning.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few scattered
showers and thunderstorms with associated brief/local CIG/VSBY
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes this afternoon and
evening. This front may produce a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms with locally higher winds and waves. Southwest winds
will increase into the 10-15 knot range today ahead of the front,
then become northwest tonight behind the front, with a light to
moderate chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will become
northeast Thursday, and continue in the 10-15 knot range on Lake
Ontario with a moderate chop.

Conditions will become marginally favorable for waterspouts as the
cold front crosses Lake Erie this afternoon and evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock